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Homicide Rates Before Guns? [Pic+]

Hits: 8700 | Rating: (1.9) | Category: Science | Added by: 5Cats
Page: 13 4 Next >   Jump to: Bottom    Last Post
HumanAction
Male, 18-29, Midwest US
 2353 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 8:26:50 PM
@Canoas

only the homicide rate is comparable

Wrong again. The sexual assault stats in Australia for 1995 are absolutely comparable to the sexual assault stats in Australia for 2007. There really is no question about it. Likewise, the other data I've mentioned is also comparable.

You seem to continue to miss the point. I am not comparing violent crime statistics between two countries (how many times have I said this now?). I am comparing statistics within the same countries from years prior. As in, compare sexual assault in Australia from 1995 to sexual assault in Australia from 2007. Comparable? Yes.

From these year-to-year comparisons, we can conclude whether violent crime within a country has increased or decreased. THEN! We can compare the observations. Simple.

Only a fool would continue to think I am comparing Australian violent crime statistics to the US.

5Cats
Male, 50-59, Canada
 26334 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 8:24:40 PM



Bye Bye @Canoas!

Because, in fact, you DID say you'd provide a link. I showed you mine! Why are you so afraid to show me yours?



Note: Chester Brown is a fellow Canadian!

HumanAction
Male, 18-29, Midwest US
 2353 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 8:22:53 PM
@Canoas

Still not getting it - I'm stunned. I thought I had written that such that a 5 year old would have made sense of it.

You have no data regarding the years prior to the gun ban.

I don't need them. I'm not currently making any claims regarding the years prior to 1995. That's why my data starts in 1995.

You cannot assert that that the gun ban leads to an increasing crime rate.

Not once have I claimed this. Rather, I'm refuting your implication that a country with a gun ban would experience less violent crime than a country without. I have no idea how you've reached the conclusion that I am making the argument you assume.

The parameters you are comparing aren't really the same thing

I'm not comparing the US violent crime statistics to the violent crime statistics of Australia. You can continue to say I am, but I'm not.

Canoas
Male, 18-29, Europe
 429 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 8:03:10 PM
@5Cats
By forged data I mean the graphic. There's absolutely no evidence backing it up. Didn't I say I'd post my link once you provide the sources for that article? You still haven't managed to do that.


I know very well what a rocket is, but that doesn't change the fact that you're retarded enough to think I'm talking about fireworks when I say "rocket" in a debate regarding firearms. Anyone with half a brain would understand perfectly what I meant, yet amazingly you failed to comprehend something so basic.

Canoas
Male, 18-29, Europe
 429 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 7:57:42 PM
@HumanAction
I'm pretty sure you're just pretending to be stupid now, but I'll explain it again.

You have no data regarding the years prior to the gun ban. You cannot assert that that the gun ban leads to an increasing crime rate. Any comparison you're making right now is completely inconclusive. The parameters you are comparing aren't really the same thing, only the homicide rate is comparable as it represents the same thing in both countries and it's showing a similar decline with the exception that Australia's is several time lower. However, you still can't make any meaningful observation from the data you provided because you lack data about the years prior to the ban. You have no way of knowing what the ban actually did.

That information is out there if you bother to look, I remember finding it for one of the previous "gun debates" here on IAB. Before you ask why I haven't posted it yet, I simply have not bothered to look either.

HumanAction
Male, 18-29, Midwest US
 2353 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 7:02:01 PM
@Canoas

I really dislike needing to use the "kids voice" with should-be adults. Unfortunately, it seems to be required in order to assist some people through otherwise simple logic.

I'll be sure to let you know the next time I'm in the UK (that's where you're from, yes?); that way I can demonstrate your stupidity in person. Better yet, if you're ever in Wisconsin, look me up.

HumanAction
Male, 18-29, Midwest US
 2353 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 6:57:52 PM
@Canoas

And again, as far as you know the sexual assault rate in US has been tripling every year.

Either you've completely missed the point or you're trying to. Let me ask you, can we compare violent crime between Australia and the US? The answer is no.

So, what can we do? Well, we can compare violent crime within a country over a span of time! This tells us if, per capita, the country is becoming more or less violent. Yay!

Hmmm... but what data is there to use? Oh, I know! We can use the official indices for violent crime measurement provided by the respective governments! That'll surely give us an idea of violent crime trends within a country.

I wonder if we should try to compare the two countries??? NO! Like we already established, we can't! Instead, we need to decide - based on statistics - for each country whether or not violent crime is increasing.

HumanAction
Male, 18-29, Midwest US
 2353 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 6:53:48 PM
@Canoas

So you're claiming that the ban did nothing to improve crime rates since after the ban the assault rates are increasing even though you have no knowledge of what was happening BEFORE the ban?

No, this is not what I'm claiming. Let's walk through it really slowly so that you are able to stay with us:

From 1995 to 2007, by the commonly measured indices, have violent crime rates increased in Australia? (yes - the answer is yes).
From 1995 to 2007, by the commonly measured indices, have violent crime rates fallen in the US? (yes)
Has a measure been in place to reduce gun ownership in Australia since approximately 1995? (yes).
Has a measure been in place in the US to reduce gun ownership during the same timeframe? (no).

I'm so happy we worked through this.

Which appears more likely?

1. A gun ban has no positive effect of violent crime; or,
2. A gun ban does.

5Cats
Male, 50-59, Canada
 26334 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 6:31:46 PM
The data you provided is inconclusive at best, it does not prove your point.

Wrong Again!
YOUR argument is: guns increase crime.
OUR argument is: guns DO NOT increase crime.

In the USA? Guns have INCREASED across the board!
Yet crime has fallen...

In Australia (to use the examples @HumanAction gives us, which you DO NOT dispute) crime has either stayed the same or risen.
- in the SAME time period
- despite the LOWERING of the amount of guns

It's apples vs apples buddy, your nitpicking notwithstanding the facts.

You fail tremendously at interpreting basic statistics.

How the HELL would YOU know? LMAO!

5Cats
Male, 50-59, Canada
 26334 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 6:27:27 PM
...forged data?


WTF are you "on about" now? WHAT "forged data"?

A rocket is a rocket. A rocket launcher is a rocket launcher. An "anti-tank rocket" (panzer shriek, bazooka) or "anti-aircraft rocket" (SAM or SLSAM) are COMPLETELY different!

And a "rocket propelled grenade" (panzerfaust) is YET ANOTHER!

I didn't know English was your second language, I thought you were a Brit...

But STILL! You have to use the defined words and not YOUR imagined meanings.

Tired of your BS bro... have a good evening, er, day? What time is it in Portugal... oh nevermind.

Do you even understand the difference between a "rocket" and a "missile"? I somehow doubt it...

And POST your link to "firearms existed in 6,000BC" or did you just pull that out of your arse?

Canoas
Male, 18-29, Europe
 429 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 6:10:01 PM
@HumanAction
So you're claiming that the ban did nothing to improve crime rates since after the ban the assault rates are increasing even though you have no knowledge of what was happening BEFORE the ban? As far as you know the ban could have reduced crime by 50%.

"Oh boy. We're not comparing the US rape to Australia's sexual assault, are we? (Answer: no). We're showing that the prevalence in Australia has increased since 1995. "
And again, as far as you know the sexual assault rate in US has been tripling every year.


The data you provided is inconclusive at best, it does not prove your point. However, your argument does prove my point: You fail tremendously at interpreting basic statistics.

HumanAction
Male, 18-29, Midwest US
 2353 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 5:01:19 PM
@Canoas

Alas! I must depart while still with fair weather. Fear not though - my dim-witted friend - I shall return to continue this shaming.

HumanAction
Male, 18-29, Midwest US
 2353 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 4:50:58 PM
@Canoas

The firearm ban was on 1995 and you have no data that indicates any rising or falling trends in crime while firearms were legal.

The data is there, you just need to do a little work. What I have demonstrated thus far is that, in spite of having no firearms ban in the US, the rate of change in various violent crimes is superior and preferable in the US. Since Australia has a gun bun, and you have erroneously claimed that "it's about observing the change that a firearm ban brings to a country". There you go - you're welcome.

Also, the sexual assault statistic, for example, does not represent actual rape, it's any physical assault of a sexual nature.

Oh boy. We're not comparing the US rape to Australia's sexual assault, are we? (Answer: no). We're showing that the prevalence in Australia has increased since 1995.

Please do keep up.

Canoas
Male, 18-29, Europe
 429 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 4:50:32 PM
I checked the US rape thingy..
"Attempts or assaults to commit rape by force or threat of force are also included; however, statutory rape (without force) and other sex offenses are excluded."
So ass groping is not included in the US statistic, which makes any comparison meaningless.

It's also interesting to note that about 66% of the assault in Australia is committed by family members or by people you know.

Canoas
Male, 18-29, Europe
 429 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 4:39:31 PM
@HumanAction
Your point is proven? I fail to see how that correlates with a firearm ban. The firearm ban was on 1995 and you have no data that indicates any rising or falling trends in crime while firearms were legal.

Also, the sexual assault statistic, for example, does not represent actual rape, it's any physical assault of a sexual nature. So ass groping can be rising and actual rape declining, you don't have enough data to compare the australia's sexual assault with US' forcible
rape.

HumanAction
Male, 18-29, Midwest US
 2353 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 4:28:47 PM
@Canoas

For 1995: Australian Bureau of Statistics
For 2007 (See link in right sidebar for more data on individual crimes): Australian Institute of Criminology

Results?

+32.4% Sexual Assaults
+50.0% Assault
-27.8% Homicide

You can find the rest; my point is proven.

Canoas
Male, 18-29, Europe
 429 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 4:15:52 PM
@HumanAction
No. I'll admit I'm wrong if reliable data suggests so.

HumanAction
Male, 18-29, Midwest US
 2353 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 4:13:57 PM
@Canoas

Not sure on the exact source I used for the US, but this should get you close: FBI

Ran the numbers with this set and got these:

-31.1% Total Violent Crime
-17.5% Forcible Rape
-31.3% Aggravated Assault
-32.9% Robbery
-30.5% Homicide

Pretty close to the other set of data I have, so I assume that both are relatively correct.

Just need to find the data for Australia again now. Only question is, will you admit that you were wrong when I do?

Canoas
Male, 18-29, Europe
 429 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 4:11:28 PM
"Since the FIRST recorded use of gunpowder in battle wasn't until 1100? In China? I VERY MUCH DOUBT firearms (or cannon) were used in 6000 BC... they may have "existed" but there's NO record of their use in combat.
NEVEMIND "widespread use". You get it yet? "

And the proof that this has anything to do with the forged data?

Canoas
Male, 18-29, Europe
 429 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 4:09:56 PM
@5Cats
"Do you KNOW what a "rocket launcher" is?"
Again, are you seriously this stupid? Can you not understand what I'm referring to when I say rocket launcher? Are you too dumb to grasp a simple concept? Do I have to spell out everything as if you were a 5 year old? Is that it? Because if that's what you want just say it.

We have a saying here in Portugal, "for a good understander half a word is enough". For you it seems the exact opposite is needed, so what are you exactly?

5Cats
Male, 50-59, Canada
 26334 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 4:09:15 PM
ffs, first you're a "grammar Nazi" and now a "nitpicker"?

Europe didn't have "widespread use" of firearms until the dates given.

Wiki Says: Your Wrong! (sic)

Since the FIRST recorded use of gunpowder in battle wasn't until 1100? In China? I VERY MUCH DOUBT firearms (or cannon) were used in 6000 BC... they may have "existed" but there's NO record of their use in combat.
NEVEMIND "widespread use". You get it yet?

Just as "electricity" has been around for thousands of years, doesn't mean the ancient Greeks used light bulbs...
(Yes! The Ancient Greeks knew about various kinds of electricity, don't even -think- about arguing that!)

Canoas
Male, 18-29, Europe
 429 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 3:59:57 PM
@HumanAction
Post the actual data, not some bullpoo you came up with.

5Cats
Male, 50-59, Canada
 26334 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 3:59:36 PM
@Canoas: You cannot possibly be serious! You're just joking, right?

Do you KNOW what a "rocket launcher" is?
A tube.
That's all, just a tube.
It can even be made of plastic.

The ROCKET provides the velocity! INTERNALLY!
As opposed to a cannon (or gun of any sort) in which the velocity is EXTERNALLY provided.

Jumping Jesus Christ, you cannot BE that stupid!

Yes you CAN own artillery ammunition in the USA! Firing it legally is a completely different thing ALTOGETHER!

Are you so bereft of facts you're only left with making shiite up?

Canoas
Male, 18-29, Europe
 429 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 3:58:19 PM
@5cats
"Um, @Canoas? The graph is the ONLY thing with a listed source! Fail! "
You mean half a screenshot of another graph? I actually want you to answer this question: Are you seriously this stupid?


"He mentions that firearms start appearing around 1200..."

According to another article on the internet, firearms have existed since 6000 B.C.
Oh, you want my sources? I'll gladly post them after you post that article's sources.

HumanAction
Male, 18-29, Midwest US
 2353 Posts
Monday, May 20, 2013 3:57:31 PM
@Canoas

then removing them will also remove the declining gun related homicides

Did I say gun-related homicides? No, I didn't, did I? The rate of decline for ALL homicides stagnated. It's just reading - it's actually quite easy.

Here are some fun stats for you:

1995-2007 - 31.9% decrease in ALL (that's for you) homicides in Australia and 31.7% in the US.

During the same time in Australia, assault rose 49.2%, robbery rose 6.2%, and sexual assault rose 29.9%. In fact, all violent crime rose 42.2%.

Let's compare to similar stats in the US:

In the US, during the same timeframe, aggravated assault fell 32.2%, robbery fell 33.2%, and rape fell 19.2%. In fact, total violent crime fell 31.8%.

Sources used were aic.gov.ua publications and fbi.gov data.

So what you're advocating is going from a system that is CLEARLY WORKING to one that clearly is not working. Makes sense.

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