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Just How Warm Has It Been This Year? [Pic]

Hits: 8817 | Rating: (2.0) | Category: Science | Added by: FoolsPrussia
Page: 1 2 3 Next >   Jump to: Bottom    Last Post
richanddead
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 2225 Posts
Wednesday, November 28, 2012 12:59:11 AM
And according to the Journal of Quaternary Science earth is still following a cooling trend.



richanddead
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 2225 Posts
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 11:02:35 PM
Lastly 1935 had the lowest recorded ice extent. 2007 was the lowest satellite-observed record.

And as far as normal earth temperature, we are still super cold.



richanddead
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 2225 Posts
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 2:53:13 PM
climatologists reading the data have said "The composite record show large sea ice variations around a small negative trend since 1900, although the trend from a statistical point of view is not significant." -(Polyakov, I.V., Alekseev, G.V., Bekryaev, R.V., Bhatt , U.S. , Colony, R., Johnson, M.A., Karklin, V.P., Walsh, D. and Yulin, A.V. 2003. Long-Term Ice Variability in Arctic Marginal Seas . Journal of Climate 16, 2078-2085.)

The solid line is smoothed data the spotted line is made of points of observation. The Y axis is ice-extent anomalies (x 1000 km2) and X is year. The blue box is when the satellite-era began.

richanddead
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 2225 Posts
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 2:34:59 PM
Not to mention both our graphs are rather recent. If you look at 100 years of data the Arctic has only lost ice at 0.5%-0.7% per decade, with multiple fluctuations included. Which is considered normal after coming out of a little ice age only 1000 years ago.


richanddead
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 2225 Posts
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 1:57:23 PM
If you look at a graph that includes arctic sea ice Maximums and minimums the graph looks a lot less extreme.



richanddead
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 2225 Posts
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 1:55:05 PM
@patchgrabber:
I can see how you'd see that, especially with that graph from the NSIDC where they record ice thickness every October, when the ice is low just starting to build. Actually the record low was this year 2012 around Sept. 11, but the ice has increased faster than normal which is why 2012 isn't considered the record low, as the NSIDC admits.
The record low in 2007 and was cause by severe winds, not heat. NASA, after an investigation, concluded "unusual winds compressed the sea ice, loaded it into the Transpolar Drift Stream and then sped its flow out of the Arctic...sea ice reached lower latitudes, it rapidly melted in the warmer waters"
Canadian researchers investigating the Northwest Passage have so far found that temperatures have been a whole 3 degrees Celsius warmer in the arctic in several periods going back 9,000 years. They have radiocarbon-dated bowhead whale remains to prove it as well as ice cores.

patchgrabber
Male, 30-39, Canada
 5745 Posts
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 6:46:17 AM
Correction: That wasn't cryosat, cryosat data said the rate of summer sea ice loss is 50% greater than expected. In 2004 there was about 13,000 cubic kilometres of sea ice in the Arctic. In 2012, there is 7,000 cubic kilometres at a rate of 900 cubic kilometres per year.

patchgrabber
Male, 30-39, Canada
 5745 Posts
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 6:25:52 AM
@richanddead: That's some nice cherry-picking there. Your image shows data from 2008, that's convenient since there was a record low in 2007.


Monthly October ice extent for 1979 to 2012 shows a decline of -7.1% per decade. Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

So it's up from the drastic low of 2007, whoopie. It's still declining by 7.1% per decade, and that's from YOUR reference to cryosat.

McGovern1981
Male, 30-39, Eastern US
 13604 Posts
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 5:34:36 AM
buy a jumper and walk FFS....


LOL NO! we don't all live within walking distance of our jobs you know.

ferdyfred
Male, 40-49, Europe
 12042 Posts
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 1:56:05 AM
Nay to worry only a few more days till the world ends

richanddead
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 2225 Posts
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 12:51:34 AM
That is 5000 cubic km more sea ice in the last 3 years and the exact same thickness as records in 1940 according to Cyrosat. And it is the quickest refreezing scientists have ever seen.

@madduck: "Who the drat needs such HUGE cars and such warm houses"

Farmers, plumbers, handymen, movers, anyone who lives in cold rural areas of the world.

Damn greedy Canadian farmers always trying to do selfish things like survive winter!!!

madduck
Female, 50-59, Europe
 6113 Posts
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 12:17:58 AM
As usual- people deny something is real for no reason other than stupidity. There is a huge amount of evidence for anthropogenic climate change- so we need to clean up our act, but what makes me so bloody insane is that it does not matter- we still need to clean up our act because it is bad housekeeping, and just plain WRONG to bugger up this planet, use all its resources and destroy habitats when there is an alternative. Irrelevant about climate change- just common sense- have you SEEN the state of the tar sands or the Niger Delta- is that RIGHT by aNY standards expect greed pure and simple???? Who the drat needs such HUGE cars and such warm houses- buy a jumper and walk FFS....

richanddead
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 2225 Posts
Monday, November 26, 2012 11:56:41 PM
Also there Antarctic has more ice but so does the Arctic.




richanddead
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 2225 Posts
Monday, November 26, 2012 11:04:16 PM
E. I've stated facts and evidence for everything I've said, and done so in a polite manner, unlike you. So don't go projecting on to me, point out where and how I'm wrong in my conclusions, don't just whine about them. I'm up for a discussion of scientific data, not a piss-ant child's argument.

You were the one who said they didn't correlate after 400 years in the past. So I showed 500 million years of data. All you said was "You're dead wrong."

Remember mesovortex: "You cannot say it's biased if it comes up to a conclusion you don't like. The conclusions are based in hard evidence."

F. 12 years of data is widely considered to few to make a conclusion because it is too open to a fluctuation of variables or outliers. Anomalies such volcanoes, like the one in Iceland, can create outliers in data that surpass 12 years. That is why earth temperature is usually graphed in 20-100 year periods in the least!

OldOllie
Male, 60-69, Midwest US
 15078 Posts
Monday, November 26, 2012 10:37:11 PM
Contiguous US != world. Europe was cold this year.

richanddead
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 2225 Posts
Monday, November 26, 2012 10:32:35 PM
@5cats: It comes out to 0.000000024%

@mesovortex:

A. You cited my graph not FoolsPrussia.

B. Skepticalscience.com admits it is biased claiming in it's own words it's mission is to "get skeptical about global warming skepticism" and omitting to publish any data that may say otherwise, such as supportive astronomical data, earth history data, or the tree ring data earlier discussed.

C. I didn't call it biased because I disagree with it. I disagree with it, as I said, because other more definitive data goes against it, and your argument was circular reasoning. "global warming melted ice, causing a change in salinity, that created more ice, therefore ice is evidence of global warming."

D. Your appealing to Skepticalscience.com as an authority on the subject. It isn't, and just because you read it on there doesn't mean it's true. It is known as a "fallacy of logic" to "appeal to authority."

auburnjunky
Male, 30-39, Southern US
 10184 Posts
Monday, November 26, 2012 10:18:40 PM
George Carlin: Man's effect on the Earth.

MountainBord
Female, 18-29, Eastern US
 1898 Posts
Monday, November 26, 2012 9:12:02 PM
brah, get ur sunscreen out.

5Cats
Male, 50-59, Canada
 26626 Posts
Monday, November 26, 2012 9:06:53 PM
@daverazor: "Act smart on IAB..."
TOO LATE BRO!
You're already a smart-arse! AND you never did answer my question over there... (go look for it, lazy-buttz!)

@mesovortex: O'really dude?
@rickanddead puts up data going back 500 MILLION years... and you B1TCH that it's only "up to the year 2000..."
Srsly? What's 12 years out of 500 MILLION? In percentages?

100 years is a TRIVIAL TWINKLING and lo and behold it's NOT "constantly getting warmer" as the CO2 constantly goes up!
AGW said it would!
Deniers said: no it won't!

So who is correct?

@mesovortex: Why don't you link "Cracked" or "The Onion"? Both have FAR MORE scientific accuracy than your conspiracy site... honestly, not joking at all...

mesovortex
Male, 30-39, Southern US
 452 Posts
Monday, November 26, 2012 7:22:52 PM
richanddead:
Look at FoolsPrussia's graph:
http://bp0.blogger.com/_4ruQ7t4zrFA/RiDlXSON82I/AAAAAAAAADA/16Y4TPB_LSY/s400/sunspot-cycle-length-temp.jpg

You're dead wrong.

Skeptical Science uses actual science to back it up. You cannot say it's biased if it comes up to a conclusion you don't like. The conclusions are based in hard evidence.

richanddead
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 2225 Posts
Monday, November 26, 2012 7:10:13 PM
link

richanddead
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 2225 Posts
Monday, November 26, 2012 7:07:52 PM
@mesovortex:

I've read this explanation before. It is a belief that global warming is causing more precipitation and influencing the salinity of the ocean. Yet ice has a natural cooling effect as well by reflecting sunlight, and cooling ocean and air temperature, this can lead to a snowball effect. Also, I think if the warm water was being pushed to the bottom, with no sunlight, it would cool down, correct? From my perspective, it sounds like the earth is still in balance but the researcher had a hypothesis and avoided any evidence to the contrary. Not to mention this is circular reasoning, global warming caused a change in salinity, that created more ice, therefore ice is evidence of global warming. The premise is the conclusion. It is Tautology.

And if you saw my previous link it lists and adds the data past the year 1980, and arrives at the the same conclusion. Plus skepticalscience.com isn't what i would call unbiased. Here is that link mesovortex
Male, 30-39, Southern US
 452 Posts
Monday, November 26, 2012 6:23:50 PM
"It must have been coooooooold when the Dinosaurs were around."

I don't understand this line of thinking. Sure things happen naturally but that doesn't mean they can't be done by man either. Earth moves rock by wind and water. Man moves it by machinery. Earth erodes and cuts rock by wind and water. Man can do it with dynamite.

This argument is terrible, but I hear it all the time.

Change the content of the atmosphere, and you change the climate. It's that simple.

Would anyone argue that changing the content of the atmosphere DOESN'T change climate? I doubt it. The content is changing thanks to man, so man IS changing the climate. Period. The question is not how, but how much.

mesovortex
Male, 30-39, Southern US
 452 Posts
Monday, November 26, 2012 6:21:08 PM
As far the Antarctic gaining ice...
http://www.skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice.htm

mesovortex
Male, 30-39, Southern US
 452 Posts
Monday, November 26, 2012 6:20:05 PM
"You're moving the goalposts, if data derived in the long term is better than short-term then richanddead's graph does show there is a strong link between solar activity and global temperatures. It's NOT the only influence but it's not irrelevant."

Of course it can. No climate scientist ignores the role of the sun. However, the sun is not causing the current warming we're seeing. FoolsPrussia's graph proves this.

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