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 Draculya
Male, 30-39, Asia
 6375 Posts
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Tuesday, August 02, 2011 11:55:13 PM
What will happen if the world stops lending to the US government, corporations and consumers? It’s hard to say because the economic academia will have to re-invent the models which are currently based on a risk free T-Bill. What’s for certain is the people and government of the US will have to get used to being poor; poorer than they would be without borrowing, poorer than the Great Depression. The rich will adopt nationalities of convenience and leave the ordinary folks to pick up the tab for their Cohibas and Cristal. Who knows? Maybe some will be left fighting over WFP handouts. The Washington Monument would look good decorating a mall in Pudong. |
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Draculya
Male, 30-39, Asia
6375 Posts
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Tuesday, August 02, 2011 11:44:05 PM
The impression that US Treasuries aren’t risk free has already been realised by the people that count the most, the Chinese economists and policy makers who are the US' biggest investors. The only thing that’s stopping them from dumping is that it’d raise the value of the Yuan and that would hurt imports of Chinese goods in the USA, but year by year the USA is a smaller contributor to the world economy, down from 32% about a decade ago to 23% today.
Furthermore, the T-Bill return isn't even a good proxy for global inflation. It has lost its purpose as an inflation hedge. If it can’t be used to delever savings portfolios, or as a no-risk investment for portfolios that can tolerate no risk at all, then it has no more purpose than a patriotic war bond.
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Draculya
Male, 30-39, Asia
6375 Posts
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Tuesday, August 02, 2011 11:43:50 PM
I wrote my MBA thesis on this a long time ago, probably before most of the IAB members were born.
It might not happen today, but I expect that the US will one day default. This is because the US debt burden continues to grow and non-discretionary spending cannot be cut and unfunded social obligations are a bigger problem than everything else in the world put together. The USA is a weak credit, plain and simple.
When the US eventually defaults on a federally guaranteed contract, let alone a treasury bill, the world will no longer recognise US Treasuries as a proxy for the risk free rate of return because essentially people will wake up and realise that it isn't risk free.
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 phoneybone
Male, 18-29, Western US
1750 Posts
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Monday, August 01, 2011 9:44:12 AM
@cyberdyne
pretty sure that's what he was going for |
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 Audizuki
Female, 30-39, Eastern US
108 Posts
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Monday, August 01, 2011 7:58:00 AM
LOL @ "fed life" on the graffiti wall.
This was kinda cute. I had no idea what it was going to be, half expected a bunch of edited-up, auto-tuned Sens, Reps and committee chairs from MSNBC clips or something.
Ending comments here.....I work in financial services, don't even want to get started on how terribly things are being handled the last few years.  |
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 xCYBERDYNEx
Male, 18-29, Southern US
4798 Posts
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Sunday, July 31, 2011 8:21:49 PM
This was retarded |
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 Yap71
Male, 30-39, Canada
150 Posts
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Sunday, July 31, 2011 6:47:33 PM
USA National debt clock
VS
Canadian National debt clock
VS
United Kingdom National Debt clock |
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 CaptainPabst
Male, 18-29, Western US
1253 Posts
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Sunday, July 31, 2011 4:03:35 PM
"Wow.. a rapper singing about what he sees"
Wow.. a random person making pointless comments on the internet about what he see's. |
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 Errand_boy
Male, 30-39, Eastern US
623 Posts
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Sunday, July 31, 2011 3:50:18 PM
We have a bunch of nukes, lets use some. Nukes always make things better no matter where you use them. Oh and that sucked. |
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 turbotong
Male, 18-29, Midwest US
560 Posts
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Sunday, July 31, 2011 3:02:51 PM
lol... "our debit is more unsustainable than my rap career."
If I wasn't worried before, I am now. |
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 Fatninja01
Male, 18-29, Australia
23996 Posts
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Sunday, July 31, 2011 2:25:32 PM
Wow.. a rapper singing about what he sees |
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 auburnjunky
Male, 30-39, Southern US
8698 Posts
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Sunday, July 31, 2011 1:35:05 PM
Raising the debt ceiling without equal cuts in spending is a failure waiting to happen. |
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 jtrebowski
Male, 40-49, Southern US
3057 Posts
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Sunday, July 31, 2011 1:27:32 PM
Very good video...makes fun of Dems, Repubs, and Tea-baggers equally. |
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 Baalthazaq
Male, 18-29, Asia
4753 Posts
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Saturday, July 30, 2011 1:22:14 PM
Link: GoRemy's Raise the debt Ceiling Rap. [Rate Link] - Fiscally responsible rap. |
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