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Obama Says NO To Syrian Democracy

Hits: 12964 | Rating: (2.3) | Category: News & Politics | Added by: 5Cats
Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Next >   Jump to: Bottom    Last Post
GuardinGnome
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 2900 Posts
Tuesday, April 19, 2011 7:08:01 AM
Yet another example on how he's a complete f*cking moron.

Cajun247
Male, 18-29, Southern US
 10224 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 8:59:59 PM
Oh, and thanks for being interested in statistics. It shows the caliber of your intellectual ability.


Well thanks, but I got a feeling after this talk Crakr's gonna come along and blow smoke up my ass regarding credibility. Then again he'll probably just get weary of this and just move along to the next hot button topic.

hehe

elkingo
Male, 30-39, Eastern US
 3208 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 8:37:53 PM
Oh, and thanks for being interested in statistics. It shows the caliber of your intellectual ability.

*tips hat*

elkingo
Male, 30-39, Eastern US
 3208 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 8:36:35 PM
@Cajun - agreed.

I think the war isn't about oil due to my calculations, but like you state, there is too little information.

However, there is enough data to make the statement that the Iraq war was not due to need for oil, because there was no difference in Clinton and Bush's imports in oil, refined products, or petrol products from Iraq to the US (p > 0.05).

elkingo
Male, 30-39, Eastern US
 3208 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 8:34:21 PM
For future reference.. you need to compare things that are similar.. like presidential terms.. but that isn't truly fair either, because you have to account for time.. inflation, demand, cost, etc.

Your groups also need to be similar in size.

link concerning sample size and how it alters results

Cajun247
Male, 18-29, Southern US
 10224 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 8:33:11 PM
@elkingo

Then can we at least conclude that to say this war in Libya is about oil would be a premature assertion right now as there is a tremendous lack of data.

elkingo
Male, 30-39, Eastern US
 3208 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 8:29:38 PM
*more... typo not "mote" haha.

elkingo
Male, 30-39, Eastern US
 3208 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 8:29:07 PM
also.. there is too many confounding factors in that comparison.. 2003 to 2011 is just too large of a difference.

It would be like measuring what a 5 year old kid eats daily in 2003 to what he eats at age 13 in 2011.. OBVIOUSLY it is going to be a lot more. A whole hell of a lot mote.

elkingo
Male, 30-39, Eastern US
 3208 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 8:27:01 PM
Wait... "I found 912 samples of gas prices between 3/25/2003 - 12/29/2008. Starts out at 2USD per gallon and ends at the same price but not before gradually rising to and peaking at $4.50 very late in Bush's term.

I found 8 samples of gas prices between 2/21/2011 - 4/13/2011. Starting out at 3.34 USD and ending at 4.1. "

Did you compare 8 samples to 912 samples?

lmao... *face palm*

You can't do that.. it won't give you a legitimate t-test


You have to compare it to equalish groups... You can't compare that large of a difference. It just won't give you valid results.

elkingo
Male, 30-39, Eastern US
 3208 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 8:23:03 PM
"The t value was 5.98"

what was the df though?

Cajun247
Male, 18-29, Southern US
 10224 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 3:13:28 PM
Click the "actual prices" link at the bottom of this page to see the data I used.

Cajun247
Male, 18-29, Southern US
 10224 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 3:06:22 PM
The t value was 5.98

Cajun247
Male, 18-29, Southern US
 10224 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 3:05:18 PM
You have to use them all for it to be valid. Not just 8.


What do you mean? I could only find 8 data points for that time period. That IS all of them. If that's not enough data points then Crakr is making a premature assertion based on gas prices.

elkingo
Male, 30-39, Eastern US
 3208 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 2:51:31 PM
"I found 8 samples of gas prices between "

You have to use them all for it to be valid. Not just 8.

elkingo
Male, 30-39, Eastern US
 3208 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 2:50:30 PM
(continued)

for it to be valid. Also the p value must be below 0.05 for it to be a statistical difference.

elkingo
Male, 30-39, Eastern US
 3208 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 2:48:36 PM
@Cajun -- you have to do a near equal sample, and something is off if your statistics have a crazy value like "p = 1e-4."

Reporting JUST the p-value doesn't tell anything either. You have to report the entire thing.

My t-test had a degree of freedom of (9) because I used a max of 8 in one group, and you add 1 for the stats to come out right.. 8 + 1 = 9.. that just tells the degree of freedom. That means in the final calculation that is how many samples that are free to vary. If more than that varies.. for example if I had a statistic like you are reporting... where p = something so low it requires exponent... or if for example say I got the stat: t(9) = 11.. that means the comparision isn't possible. If you are running t-tests it is important to note the degrees of freedom (df) the actual t statistic, and the p value.

for example: t(df) = t stat, p < 0.05 --> t(9) = 0.161, p > 0.05

The t statsistic has to be between 0 and 9 f

Cajun247
Male, 18-29, Southern US
 10224 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 10:30:10 AM
Gulf War has a mean gas price of $2.44 with a standard deviation of 73 cents.
Libyan Uprising has a mean gas price of $3.85 with a standard deviation of 26 cents.

Cajun247
Male, 18-29, Southern US
 10224 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 10:24:36 AM
Let's take a look at the statistics:
Same with elkingo's critique I will use an unpaired two-tailed t-test.

I found 912 samples of gas prices between 3/25/2003 - 12/29/2008. Starts out at 2USD per gallon and ends at the same price but not before gradually rising to and peaking at $4.50 very late in Bush's term.

I found 8 samples of gas prices between 2/21/2011 - 4/13/2011. Starting out at 3.34 USD and ending at 4.1.

p = 1e-4

This says that there is a significance and further says gas prices changed more significantly from Bush's involvement in Iraq than they did from Obama's involvement in Libya. Then again it could be too early to tell.

Cajun247
Male, 18-29, Southern US
 10224 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 9:59:03 AM
Libya's light sweet crude supply effects the whole global commodities market


So does Canada's and much more than Libya does.

Also, I can't believe you don't know the difference between chasing Gaddaffi's planes and helicopters out of the sky and dropping bombs (some reportedly on civilians).


Strawman argument. I know the difference. I also know there's a big difference between bombing a country and invading them.

CrakrJak
Male, 40-49, Midwest US
 16861 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 9:08:50 AM
Cajun: Once again, Libya's light sweet crude supply effects the whole global commodities market, no matter who buys it the supply is now gone. That is why gas prices have risen to nearly $4 a gal here now.

Also, I can't believe you don't know the difference between chasing Gaddaffi's planes and helicopters out of the sky and dropping bombs (some reportedly on civilians).

Cajun247
Male, 18-29, Southern US
 10224 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 8:20:42 AM
Enforcing a no-fly zone is not the same as dropping bombs.


How did you come up with that conclusion?

Cajun247
Male, 18-29, Southern US
 10224 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 8:16:29 AM
This war in Libya is about oil, much more so than Iraq


<sarcasm>Oh yeah because we don't refine Heavy Sour Crude and import ten times more oil from Iraq.</sarcasm>.

McGovern1981
Male, 30-39, Eastern US
 13217 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 7:51:48 AM
Lets stay out of this and Libya let the UN turn Libya into another mess they're great at creating. That way we can throw that in the faces of all Europeans and tell them it's a war for oil like they've been so quick to do for ages now not too different now are we??

PierreJeanFR
Male, 40-49, Europe
 1337 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 7:12:32 AM
Is the Washington times a credible source?
Isn't it owned by Reverend Sun Myung Moon's Unification Church?

ghettoelf
Male, 18-29, Eastern US
 52 Posts
Monday, April 18, 2011 3:49:49 AM
IMPEACH IMPEACH IMPEACH! This guy is such a liar. We can get involved in all these other countries' business when they don't ask us but when they do, he turns a blind eye because he's evil. IMPEACH IMPEACH IMPEACH!

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