Spultra13, the odds are lower. Whenever you add another possible outcome to the draw, you`ve lowered the odds. In splurbyburbl`s case, he`s asking, "What are the odds you you pick 6 numbers that are ALL exactly one number off from the 6 winning numbers." Statistically, the odds of that happening are not the same at all and are, in fact, much, much lower. Statistics 101. You`re thinking of "OR" outcomes... this OR that... this post is an "AND" outcome... This happening AND that = lower probability. Fact!

"Statistically, the odds of that happening are not the same at all and are, in fact, much, much lower. Statistics 101. You`re thinking of "OR" outcomes... this OR that... this post is an "AND" outcome... This happening AND that = lower probability. Fact!"

You`re looking at the numbers chosen as a variable, when it isn`t. The numbers chosen are a constant whenever it comes to the odds of the numbers being 1 lower. The variable is the numbers chosen.

You`re trying to calculate the odds that the chosen numbers will be a specific pattern, and the winning numbers will be a specific pattern, which is unnecessary. We just need to compare the winning numbers (the variable) to the chosen numbers (the constant).

"umm... splurbyburbl, the odds are exactly the same. The odds of getting any particular number are exactly the same."

Oh? So you are saying that there are the same exact odds of me getting a series of numbers each directly 1 minus the amount of each respective number of the lottery... as it is to actually get the exact numbers of the lottery?

The odds are exactly the same. The odds that I get the winning numbers, or all numbers are 1 under, or 10 under, or 30 over, or all completely different amounts over or under. Every combination has the same chance of coming up.

"Oh? So you are saying that there are the same exact odds of me getting a series of numbers each directly 1 minus the amount of each respective number of the lottery... as it is to actually get the exact numbers of the lottery?

High school statistics would be an unbelievable journey for splurbyburbl. "You mean out of 40 of us, two of us probably have the same birthday?? No way! And I still don`t believe there`s such thing as infinite or imaginary numbers, you made that up."

Allow me, for a minute, to school you all in probability.

Fist off, the odds of this happening is *very* high. Why? Because there`s a photo showing it happened. I wouldn`t say it`s a certainty since there`s a chance this was fake.

All "kidding" aside. The kidding is in quotes becuase you have to be very specific about how you phrase the question when dealing with probabilities.

IF i asked what the probability of picking a series of numbers exactly one greater than the number the machine picked. That would be the same as the probability of choosing the same numbers as the machine picked. Why? Because there is still only one correct outcome out of the exact same number of possible outcomes.

Now, what if i said "What`s the probability of getting a series of numbers exactly one off from what the machine picked?" That`s a whole different story because you can have more than one correct outcomes. You can have a series of numbers all one greater or a series of numbers all one less than. Also, what about a series of number where there is a mix of greater than and less than? That should count too. So there are a lot of different possibilities which would make the probability a lot greater. Remember the probability of something happening is (the number of correct outcomes) / (the number of possible outcomes).

Now... what if i said "What are the odds of something like this happening?" Well, now that even higher! We assign some meaning to this because we find it aesthetically pleasing (or displeasing since he didn`t win). There`s nothing mathematically significant about this (so to speak) then any other loosing combination. So it depends on what we consider an outcome like this to be. Wouldn`t you be just as amazed if all the numbers were 2 away? Or 5 or 10? So there are a lot more winning outcomes and the probability is much higher.

Say you were given a 4 digit number at random and it was "1234" You would be like "Wow! This is my lucky day" That`s a one in ten thousand chance of getting that number! Well, yeah, but wouldn`t you have said the same thing if you got 2345 or 3456 or 1111 or 4321....? So getting 1234 isn`t really special.

The main point of this diatribe is that it`s very dangerious to assign odds for something to re-occure without clearly understanding what the event exactly is.

"Well said. The lottery is a stupid people tax, and maybe sometimes a source of Darwin award recipients."

Actually, from a probability standpoint, buying one lottery ticket is one of the smartest things you can do. Your probability of winning go up quite a bit when you actually play. Conversely, buying a second ticket is one of the dumbest things to do. Doesn`t change your probability hardly at all.

The odds this happening is 1 in 100,000,000,000,000 (if you include the 0`s as a digit being guessed). It is more likely that you will guess someones social security number on the first try.

I don`t really agree on the idiot tax cliche either. Sure you probably won`t win, but you might, someone always does. And are you really going to miss that dollar? Really? If a dollar makes or breaks you, then sure, you`re probably an idiot. Besides, think of it as charity to the education system it profits (atleast it does in my state, that may not be a worldwide thing).

Let me see. If you took that dollar and invested it every day, or that 20 or 40 you`re really blowing... I won`t insult your intelligence by doing the math, but you could retire with a handsome nest-egg I will insult your intelligence by saying that you have more chance of being trampled to death by a herd of bees than you have of winning.

Notice how I didn`t say `statistically` to make it sound kooky.

@An_egg please do the math. I play the Euro Lottery which is £2 a week. Say I invested that money roughly £100 a year and added the £100 each year. I have an extremely good interest rate of 11% it would still take 45 years to make 100k Now take into account inflation etc I`m now 70 what am i realistically going to do with the money. If buy some freak chance with the 20 million jackpot now wooohooo! Solid gold hooker robots ahoy!

I prefer scratchcards. @Mr_pedo_bear... can I adopt you as a family member who sits in the corner at christmas and creeps everyone out? cos that`d be AWESOME.

Insomniatic - That`s the point. People who don`t have the money to spend on it are the ones who are most likely to buy it in hope that they will be the ones to win; sure, it might only be a dollar that time, but that quickly adds up. I`m not saying it`s a bad thing to do occasionally, a lot of people do it however often it happens.

Matwix- Well that`s heavily generalizing the group of people that do buy lottery tickets. Just because some people buy them that shouldn`t doesn`t make the whole group a mass of idiots. You could say that about literally anything. Alcohol is the drink of idiots, since so many who should be spending their money on other things buy up booze. Clearly not everyone abuses alcohol like that.

Oh? So you are saying that there are the same exact odds of me getting a series of numbers each directly 1 minus the amount of each respective number of the lottery... as it is to actually get the exact numbers of the lottery?

- This would be depressing.
Well said. The lottery is a stupid people tax, and maybe sometimes a source of Darwin award recipients.

The odds that any particular pattern is match is the same. It`s the same.

You`re looking at the numbers chosen as a variable, when it isn`t. The numbers chosen are a constant whenever it comes to the odds of the numbers being 1 lower. The variable is the numbers chosen.

You`re trying to calculate the odds that the chosen numbers will be a specific pattern, and the winning numbers will be a specific pattern, which is unnecessary. We just need to compare the winning numbers (the variable) to the chosen numbers (the constant).

"The variable is the numbers chosen. "

should be:

"The variable is the winning numbers. "

Oh? So you are saying that there are the same exact odds of me getting a series of numbers each directly 1 minus the amount of each respective number of the lottery... as it is to actually get the exact numbers of the lottery?

Go kill yourself immediately.

Go kill yourself immediately."

Can`t tell if retarded or trolling...

Fist off, the odds of this happening is *very* high. Why? Because there`s a photo showing it happened. I wouldn`t say it`s a certainty since there`s a chance this was fake.

All "kidding" aside. The kidding is in quotes becuase you have to be very specific about how you phrase the question when dealing with probabilities.

IF i asked what the probability of picking a series of numbers exactly one greater than the number the machine picked. That would be the same as the probability of choosing the same numbers as the machine picked. Why? Because there is still only one correct outcome out of the exact same number of possible outcomes.

The main point of this diatribe is that it`s very dangerious to assign odds for something to re-occure without clearly understanding what the event exactly is.

I like that you said that despite your avatar. You`re just a barrel of contradiction aren`t you?

Actually, from a probability standpoint, buying one lottery ticket is one of the smartest things you can do. Your probability of winning go up quite a bit when you actually play. Conversely, buying a second ticket is one of the dumbest things to do. Doesn`t change your probability hardly at all.

Besides, think of it as charity to the education system it profits (atleast it does in my state, that may not be a worldwide thing).

I won`t insult your intelligence by doing the math, but you could retire with a handsome nest-egg

I will insult your intelligence by saying that you have more chance of being trampled to death by a herd of bees than you have of winning.

Notice how I didn`t say `statistically` to make it sound kooky.

@Mr_pedo_bear... can I adopt you as a family member who sits in the corner at christmas and creeps everyone out? cos that`d be AWESOME.

Go kill yourself immediately.

... they ARE the same.

Better to have £100 worth of fun, than the miniscule chance of £2,000,000 worth of fun.

Bird in the hand and all that.