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Rating: 4
Category: Science
Date: 05/18/10 06:04 AM

70 Responses to Probability Theory Is Sufficient To Explain All

  1. Profile photo of a1butcher
    a1butcher Male 40-49
    4812 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 12:21 am
    Link: Probability Theory Is Sufficient To Explain All - Poor understanding of probability lead people to put forward supernatural explanation for overly-common events.
  2. Profile photo of theshade
    theshade Male 18-29
    54 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 6:15 am
    This video; no poo.
  3. Profile photo of Tiredofnicks
    Tiredofnicks Male 30-39
    5101 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 6:18 am
    Solid 4.
  4. Profile photo of almightybob1
    almightybob1 Male 18-29
    4290 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 6:18 am
    Gah, I learn this at uni already! IAB is where I come to get away from learning statistics.
  5. Profile photo of smurfette69
    smurfette69 Female 18-29
    300 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 6:25 am
    good info...long presentation, and slightly boring at times.
  6. Profile photo of slab-of-rage
    slab-of-rage Male 18-29
    769 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 6:42 am
    That wasn`t Joseph Bloggs, that was Obama.

    YAHTZEE!
  7. Profile photo of Pabasa
    Pabasa Male 18-29
    4014 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 6:46 am
    Mathematics may eliminate superstition, but it also ignores emotions, something that all humans have. If I chose to buy a lottery ticket using my birthday, winning it would be sweeter and memorable than a totally random number, and any losses related to said chosen number is forgotten anyway.

    So if it comes down to faith, superstition, etc, I say go for it. Unless one becomes clouded and deluded to think that the reality speaks otherwise, these associations are a healthy part of being human.
  8. Profile photo of pui
    pui Female 18-29
    3575 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 6:47 am
    cool
  9. Profile photo of D3rAnG3d
    D3rAnG3d Male 18-29
    1598 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 6:47 am
    pretty cool, but the guy`s voice was dull and monotone
  10. Profile photo of Jayno
    Jayno Male 18-29
    176 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 6:56 am
    This guy sounds a lot like potholer54. And, this video is just as good.
  11. Profile photo of outdoorMINER
    outdoorMINER Female 18-29
    934 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 6:57 am
    I wish this video would load for me. It is right up my alley.
  12. Profile photo of Dr_Sexy
    Dr_Sexy Male 30-39
    1597 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 7:27 am
    fairly elementary mathmatics shall never prove me wrong!
  13. Profile photo of Jesterhead
    Jesterhead Male 18-29
    27 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 7:32 am
    He sounds like the guy from tales of mere existence.
  14. Profile photo of Angelmassb
    Angelmassb Male 18-29
    15511 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 7:39 am
    Interesting worth watching video. It explain many things some might think are "supernatural" and such, in a easy way. The supernatural is still there of course, but not everything has to do with it
  15. Profile photo of Creabhain
    Creabhain Male 40-49
    440 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 8:00 am
    I found it a bit drawn out but otherwise good. Of course I already understood the maths he speaks of so he was preaching to the converted in my case. We did the birthday thing when I was in College. It worked. Out of a class of 32 two of us had the same birthday. Since we were all close in age even the year was the same as it happened.
  16. Profile photo of Vligon
    Vligon Male 18-29
    594 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 8:07 am
    Ha Ha The moth died.
  17. Profile photo of unmercyfuldu
    unmercyfuldu Male 18-29
    762 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 8:15 am
    "The supernatural is still there of course, but not everything has to do with it"

    Good job placating your ignorance.
  18. Profile photo of Rick_S
    Rick_S Male 40-49
    3275 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 8:19 am
    Problem with his birthday calcs. The odds of a birthday being on 2/29 are slightly less than 1 in 1461 (one day in four years), not 1 in 366 (one day in one leap year). You`d have to do calculations based on that number. (Slightly less than 1/1461 since a leap year isn`t a leap year if it is divisible by 100, but isn`t divisible by 400. That means 1900 wasn`t a leap year, but 2000 was.)
  19. Profile photo of Oscola
    Oscola Male 18-29
    349 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 8:33 am
    I once slept with a hooker, and for some strange reason, unlike other times, I wore a condom. A couple months later I went back to the same place and asked around for her. Turns out she died of AIDs. If God wasn`t the one who made me think to put a rubber on then what did. Probability can`t explain it because I never wear a johnny, it must have been supernatural intervention. It freaked me out so much that from now on whenever I visit Soho I`ll put two on.
  20. Profile photo of TalcumX
    TalcumX Male 50-59
    561 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 8:40 am
    Wow!....... my name is Zebedee Doodah too!
    Coincidence?........spooky huh?
  21. Profile photo of D_Fishbait
    D_Fishbait Male 18-29
    136 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 8:53 am
    Am I the only one that found it ironic that a guy making a case against the supernatural used two Biblical names for the little Rocky Horror guys?
  22. Profile photo of feiku
    feiku Female 18-29
    526 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 8:55 am
    Oscola: Then why didn`t god help tell her to use a condom when she contracted aids? Why didn`t he intervene in other people? What makes you so special? It could of just been a thought brought on by subliminal thoughts you weren`t aware you were having. Perhaps you noticed in your subconscious she appeared iller than other hookers you`ve been with. There`s many reasons why you would have decided to put on a rubber but that doesn`t necessarily mean a god went and told you to.
    Why would god save YOU but let everyone else die from it? Really? Cause you`re just that good of a person?
  23. Profile photo of jamie76
    jamie76 Male 30-39
    2346 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 8:59 am
    Oscola...you are an idiot
  24. Profile photo of bored-am-I
    bored-am-I Male 30-39
    785 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 9:18 am
    Hmmm the last few seconds kinda destroyed the argument...I mean Peace, that`s not very probable.
  25. Profile photo of rainbowfarts
    rainbowfarts Female 18-29
    798 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 9:32 am
    too long, somewhat boring plus I prefer to retain a little bit of whimsy in my life without a boring British guy telling me nothing is special.
  26. Profile photo of OmgZelda
    OmgZelda Female 18-29
    1593 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 9:35 am
    How has itkonlyyou67 been able to spam 94 times without getting the ban hammer? D:
  27. Profile photo of almightybob1
    almightybob1 Male 18-29
    4290 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 9:37 am
    How has itkonlyyou67 been able to spam 94 times without getting the ban hammer? D:

    Because the itk spammers use scripts to post hundreds of times in quick succession. Those 94 spam posts probably all came within the last 15 minutes.
    They`re being deleted as we speak.
  28. Profile photo of gatorade777
    gatorade777 Male 18-29
    1194 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 9:46 am
    "It would be supernatural if coincidences didn`t occur" mindblowing
  29. Profile photo of CinematicD
    CinematicD Female 18-29
    239 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 10:16 am
    "too long, somewhat boring plus I prefer to retain a little bit of whimsy in my life without a boring British guy telling me nothing is special."

    agreed.
  30. Profile photo of howlingwolf
    howlingwolf Male 18-29
    1351 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 10:31 am
    "too long, somewhat boring plus I prefer to retain a little bit of whimsy in my life without a boring British guy telling me nothing is special."

    Boring to you maybe, but the point wasn`t really to knock your socks off. I liked this video.
  31. Profile photo of APJ311
    APJ311 Male 13-17
    749 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 10:34 am
    This video is brilliant. It`s amazing how few people understand coincidence.
  32. Profile photo of KingDragon
    KingDragon Female 18-29
    159 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 10:43 am
    That`s not a British accent. At least not fully. That man has spend some time in Australia/New Zealand
  33. Profile photo of Cajun247
    Cajun247 Male 18-29
    10722 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 10:57 am
    @almightybob1
    That`s not a very good explanation considering that she`s been spamming for oh... THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS!!!!!!
  34. Profile photo of Windrider15
    Windrider15 Male 13-17
    656 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 11:23 am
    Informative and interesting.

    Altho9ugh that is somewhat hidden by the monotonous tone of this guys voice, followed by the repitition in his lecture.
  35. Profile photo of BBQ
    BBQ Male 18-29
    467 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 11:35 am
    Nice video, all hail probability!
  36. Profile photo of Lellin
    Lellin Female 13-17
    54 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 11:58 am
    Well done IAB. Excellent video choice.
  37. Profile photo of Salted_Eggs
    Salted_Eggs Male 18-29
    774 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 12:05 pm
    So I was half right when I said that precognition dreams can be chalked up to dreaming about an event likely to happen (washing the dishes).

    Oh, also, fav`d.
    I love information.
  38. Profile photo of razordragon
    razordragon Male 18-29
    336 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 12:15 pm
    he`s closest to British yes, but I can see the OZ in the snoz.
  39. Profile photo of EclecticGeek
    EclecticGeek Male 18-29
    26 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 12:16 pm
    1: "Mathematics may...totally random number, and any losses related to said chosen number is forgotten anyway."
    Bull. If you won the lottery you wouldn`t give one iota about where you got the number.

    2. Oscala: You`re a great troll. If you`re not a troll god wants you to enjoy your AIDS because otherwise "he" would have made you only wear one. Wearing two condoms(Wearing multiple condoms significantly increases friction and greatly increases the chance of breakage.)
  40. Profile photo of GRadde
    GRadde Male 18-29
    2556 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 12:17 pm
    :O That cloud there, the last frame, that just COULD not have been a coincidence! It is PROOF of... whatever.
    OK, so that joke was lame.

    But I agree with APJ311, that was brilliant. ^^
  41. Profile photo of Loxen
    Loxen Female 30-39
    1387 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 12:41 pm
    So if I predict (At this moment!) that tomorrow a random elderly person is going to walk up to me and say "Trees, frogs, and figs!"
    If you roll the cosmic dice, the odds of this happening are very low, yet it could still happen and still be summed up to coincidence.
    *brain aneurism*...sssssssssssss
  42. Profile photo of Oystah
    Oystah Female 40-49
    4033 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 12:46 pm
    It`s weird how this really is an interesting subject, but I`ve tried to watch it five times now and I keep stopping it because I get bored with it.
  43. Profile photo of cj89
    cj89 Female 18-29
    42 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 12:46 pm
    When I was eleven and learnt the probability of winning the lottery was 1 in 14 million, I vowed never to play. You can get sucked in, thinking "what if this week is my week?". Spending all that money just to perhaps win a tenner every now and again really isn`t worth it to me...
  44. Profile photo of Fatninja01
    Fatninja01 Male 30-39
    25406 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 1:09 pm
    Ha ha ha, hindsite! is that site coming out of your? ;)
  45. Profile photo of alchemist18
    alchemist18 Female 13-17
    357 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 1:19 pm
    PEACE
  46. Profile photo of LazyMe484
    LazyMe484 Male 18-29
    10443 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 2:36 pm
    I`ve seen this before.

    I recommend this to anyone who is lacking in common sense, like many of you.
  47. Profile photo of Pyroo
    Pyroo Male 18-29
    108 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 3:26 pm
    ZZzzzzzz... Huh?! Did i...What?
  48. Profile photo of peloos12
    peloos12 Male 18-29
    3825 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 3:32 pm
    Alright two things first:

    1. I`m not religious
    2. This video makes fantastic points

    BUT

    My only problem with this thinking, and with any kind of atheist/no such thing as fate or coincidence thinking is... what if you`re over thinking it?

    I think part of the problem with religion and concepts such as fate are the fact that they`re so associated with stuff we`ve learned are just flat-out bullsh*t. Magic, demons, unicorns, Santa Claus. Nobody ever stops to consider that God, fate, precognitive occurrences, etc may be just as scientific as the odds of rolling a die and landing on 6.

    Example: (I`m not stating this as a viable theory, no need to shoot it down -- this is just for the sake of simplifying) What if time were in a loop? What if, after we die, we just start over again? What if precognitive dreams and deja vu were a result of having BEEN there before, NOT predicting something that`s never happened?

    I could go on for days abo
  49. Profile photo of peloos12
    peloos12 Male 18-29
    3825 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 3:38 pm
    *about this but I`m running out of characters... heh

    P.S.

    I`ve had a few dreams in my life in which were so detailed, so dead-on that it kind of voids what this guy is saying. I don`t think there are actually many people out there who say "ZOMG, it STORMED IN MY DREAM AND NOW IT`S STORMING".

    Usually when people make these claims it`s because their dreamed played out like a video of the event that actually ended up happening.

    I`m not saying that surely these dreams weren`t mere coincidences, I`m just saying that I don`t think you can rule it out. Nobody on the face of this planet knows the intricacies of how the universe works. Simplifying events with "random coincidence" is almost as silly as simplifying it with "God is reaching out to me".
  50. Profile photo of vfr4
    vfr4 Male 30-39
    185 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 3:42 pm
    Seems like someone did the talking and then someone made a video to go along with it.
  51. Profile photo of kalifag
    kalifag Female 18-29
    11 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 5:45 pm
    i only wathed this video because i love british accents.
  52. Profile photo of Angilion
    Angilion Male 40-49
    12390 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 5:54 pm
    Oscola:

    "I can`t explain it, therefore <insert your god here> did it" is not a logical argument. It doesn`t really make any sense. It`s a classic logical fallacy and trivialises your god by making them, in effect, ignorance.

    If some sort of unsupported belief in some sort of supernatural entity or entities with lots of magic powers appeals to you, fine. No skin off my nose as long as you don`t have any power.

    But why reverse your thinking and pretend it`s a logical argument? You`re starting with the assumption of your god and interpreting that into what you can`t explain.
  53. Profile photo of hi2pi
    hi2pi Male 30-39
    736 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 6:22 pm
    Oh oh, he called it the THEORY of probability - and since so many people like to dismiss scientific theories as if they were just made up nonsense (evolution, global warming) we can now safely dismiss everything we know about the mathematics of probability. And gravity.
  54. Profile photo of Caretta
    Caretta Male 18-29
    540 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 6:57 pm
    "I`ve had a few dreams in my life in which were so detailed, so dead-on that it kind of voids what this guy is saying."

    Actually that absolutely reaffirms what he`s saying, specifically the part from 6:37 through to 7:37.
  55. Profile photo of VCP24
    VCP24 Female 18-29
    42 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 7:29 pm
    There is a 100% probability that this bored the crap outta me.
  56. Profile photo of Dagaz20
    Dagaz20 Female 18-29
    382 posts
    May 18, 2010 at 9:12 pm
    that guy`s voice was like the vacuum cleaner add guy`s..... almost hypnotic
  57. Profile photo of dagen
    dagen Male 18-29
    1 post
    May 18, 2010 at 10:00 pm
    Nope he is wrong an evil wizard is responsible for it all
  58. Profile photo of Nidonemo
    Nidonemo Male 18-29
    9311 posts
    May 19, 2010 at 1:18 am
    Kinda just sucked all the fun out of life there, didn`t he?
  59. Profile photo of jamil
    jamil Male 13-17
    18 posts
    May 19, 2010 at 2:34 am
    Anyone else notice the word "hello" when the dices were changing sequence
  60. Profile photo of Oscola
    Oscola Male 18-29
    349 posts
    May 19, 2010 at 3:43 am
    @ Angilion

    You don`t understand. I HATE condoms. I never wear them. But this one time, after picking up Krystal on the corner and listening to her story about once having a fight with a sewer rat over her last Rolo, I decided to get some condoms. It defies probability, because prior to me buying the condoms there was a 0% chance of me buying some. Is it just coincidence that the very day I sleep with an AIDs ridden prostitute is the same day I decide to wear a condom, or did God plant the idea into my brain? I think logic gives the answer.

    God 1
    Heathen Scientists 0
  61. Profile photo of Pabasa
    Pabasa Male 18-29
    4014 posts
    May 19, 2010 at 3:50 am
    Actually, there`s one thing that people like this tend to forget as well: Biasness. While the lottery is highly likely to be absolutely random, some coins are shaped (and thus weighted) differently on both sides, creating a possibility of being biased. Another example is the possibility of having twins. Certain groups of people have a higher chance of getting twins just because of something they eat, even. Thus one can`t just assume a standard 3% chance of getting a twin without considering certain factors, and there`s a lot of factors.

    Lottery, yes, you can bet you`ll have a 1 in 14 million chance of winning. Other situations? Gotta get the bigger picture, really.
  62. Profile photo of trelina
    trelina Female 18-29
    249 posts
    May 19, 2010 at 4:03 am
    music retical
  63. Profile photo of almightybob1
    almightybob1 Male 18-29
    4290 posts
    May 19, 2010 at 4:23 am
    @almightybob1
    That`s not a very good explanation considering that she`s been spamming for oh... THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS!!!!!!
    No. Notice the numbers at the end? itkonlyyou 67. That`s because we`ve already banned the other 66 within minutes of them being created.
  64. Profile photo of sbeelz
    sbeelz Male 30-39
    2868 posts
    May 19, 2010 at 4:24 am
    *Like.*
  65. Profile photo of rainbowfarts
    rainbowfarts Female 18-29
    798 posts
    May 19, 2010 at 9:03 am
    @Nidonemo
    my thoughts exactly

    "No. Notice the numbers at the end? itkonlyyou 67. That`s because we`ve already banned the other 66 within minutes of them being created."

    haha that`s a very headstrong spammer!
  66. Profile photo of rgu3t0
    rgu3t0 Male 18-29
    79 posts
    May 19, 2010 at 11:49 am
    well that was a good nap for me
  67. Profile photo of startech
    startech Male 30-39
    235 posts
    May 20, 2010 at 9:56 am
    I got bored of this before I even hit the play button
  68. Profile photo of longhornsfan
    longhornsfan Male 18-29
    134 posts
    May 24, 2010 at 8:43 am
    yawwwwwnnnn.....
  69. Profile photo of PayN8tention
    PayN8tention Male 18-29
    907 posts
    June 22, 2010 at 3:44 pm
    The most recent, seemingly bizarre, coincidence that happened to me was I was playing a point-and-click game, and the 4 digits to dial on the telephone were the last four digits of my mom`s cell...

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