Probability Theory Is Sufficient To Explain All

Submitted by: a1butcher 7 years ago in Science

Poor understanding of probability lead people to put forward supernatural explanation for overly-common events.
There are 70 comments:
Male 5,189
Im awake im awake.
0
Reply
Male 907
The most recent, seemingly bizarre, coincidence that happened to me was I was playing a point-and-click game, and the 4 digits to dial on the telephone were the last four digits of my mom`s cell...
0
Reply
Male 134
yawwwwwnnnn.....
0
Reply
Male 235
I got bored of this before I even hit the play button
0
Reply
Male 79
well that was a good nap for me
0
Reply
Female 798
@Nidonemo
my thoughts exactly

"No. Notice the numbers at the end? itkonlyyou 67. That`s because we`ve already banned the other 66 within minutes of them being created."

haha that`s a very headstrong spammer!
0
Reply
Male 2,868
*Like.*
0
Reply
Male 4,290
[quote]@almightybob1
That`s not a very good explanation considering that she`s been spamming for oh... THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS!!!!!![/quote]
No. Notice the numbers at the end? itkonlyyou 67. That`s because we`ve already banned the other 66 within minutes of them being created.
0
Reply
Female 249
music retical
0
Reply
Male 4,012
Actually, there`s one thing that people like this tend to forget as well: Biasness. While the lottery is highly likely to be absolutely random, some coins are shaped (and thus weighted) differently on both sides, creating a possibility of being biased. Another example is the possibility of having twins. Certain groups of people have a higher chance of getting twins just because of something they eat, even. Thus one can`t just assume a standard 3% chance of getting a twin without considering certain factors, and there`s a lot of factors.

Lottery, yes, you can bet you`ll have a 1 in 14 million chance of winning. Other situations? Gotta get the bigger picture, really.
0
Reply
Male 349
@ Angilion

You don`t understand. I HATE condoms. I never wear them. But this one time, after picking up Krystal on the corner and listening to her story about once having a fight with a sewer rat over her last Rolo, I decided to get some condoms. It defies probability, because prior to me buying the condoms there was a 0% chance of me buying some. Is it just coincidence that the very day I sleep with an AIDs ridden prostitute is the same day I decide to wear a condom, or did God plant the idea into my brain? I think logic gives the answer.

God 1
Heathen Scientists 0
0
Reply
Male 18
Anyone else notice the word "hello" when the dices were changing sequence
0
Reply
Male 9,305
Kinda just sucked all the fun out of life there, didn`t he?
0
Reply
Male 1
Nope he is wrong an evil wizard is responsible for it all
0
Reply
Female 382
that guy`s voice was like the vacuum cleaner add guy`s..... almost hypnotic
0
Reply
Female 42
There is a 100% probability that this bored the crap outta me.
0
Reply
Male 540
"I`ve had a few dreams in my life in which were so detailed, so dead-on that it kind of voids what this guy is saying."

Actually that absolutely reaffirms what he`s saying, specifically the part from 6:37 through to 7:37.
0
Reply
Male 736
Oh oh, he called it the THEORY of probability - and since so many people like to dismiss scientific theories as if they were just made up nonsense (evolution, global warming) we can now safely dismiss everything we know about the mathematics of probability. And gravity.
0
Reply
Male 12,365
Oscola:

"I can`t explain it, therefore <insert your god here> did it" is not a logical argument. It doesn`t really make any sense. It`s a classic logical fallacy and trivialises your god by making them, in effect, ignorance.

If some sort of unsupported belief in some sort of supernatural entity or entities with lots of magic powers appeals to you, fine. No skin off my nose as long as you don`t have any power.

But why reverse your thinking and pretend it`s a logical argument? You`re starting with the assumption of your god and interpreting that into what you can`t explain.
0
Reply
Female 11
i only wathed this video because i love british accents.
0
Reply
Male 185
Seems like someone did the talking and then someone made a video to go along with it.
0
Reply
Male 3,819
*about this but I`m running out of characters... heh

P.S.

I`ve had a few dreams in my life in which were so detailed, so dead-on that it kind of voids what this guy is saying. I don`t think there are actually many people out there who say "ZOMG, it STORMED IN MY DREAM AND NOW IT`S STORMING".

Usually when people make these claims it`s because their dreamed played out like a video of the event that actually ended up happening.

I`m not saying that surely these dreams weren`t mere coincidences, I`m just saying that I don`t think you can rule it out. Nobody on the face of this planet knows the intricacies of how the universe works. Simplifying events with "random coincidence" is almost as silly as simplifying it with "God is reaching out to me".
0
Reply
Male 3,819
Alright two things first:

1. I`m not religious
2. This video makes fantastic points

BUT

My only problem with this thinking, and with any kind of atheist/no such thing as fate or coincidence thinking is... what if you`re over thinking it?

I think part of the problem with religion and concepts such as fate are the fact that they`re so associated with stuff we`ve learned are just flat-out bullsh*t. Magic, demons, unicorns, Santa Claus. Nobody ever stops to consider that God, fate, precognitive occurrences, etc may be just as scientific as the odds of rolling a die and landing on 6.

Example: (I`m not stating this as a viable theory, no need to shoot it down -- this is just for the sake of simplifying) What if time were in a loop? What if, after we die, we just start over again? What if precognitive dreams and deja vu were a result of having BEEN there before, NOT predicting something that`s never happened?

I could go on for days abo
0
Reply
Male 108
ZZzzzzzz... Huh?! Did i...What?
0
Reply
Male 10,440
I`ve seen this before.

I recommend this to anyone who is lacking in common sense, like many of you.
0
Reply
Female 356
PEACE
0
Reply
Male 25,417
Ha ha ha, hindsite! is that site coming out of your? ;)
0
Reply
Female 42
When I was eleven and learnt the probability of winning the lottery was 1 in 14 million, I vowed never to play. You can get sucked in, thinking "what if this week is my week?". Spending all that money just to perhaps win a tenner every now and again really isn`t worth it to me...
0
Reply
Female 4,039
It`s weird how this really is an interesting subject, but I`ve tried to watch it five times now and I keep stopping it because I get bored with it.
0
Reply
Female 1,386
So if I predict (At this moment!) that tomorrow a random elderly person is going to walk up to me and say "Trees, frogs, and figs!"
If you roll the cosmic dice, the odds of this happening are very low, yet it could still happen and still be summed up to coincidence.
*brain aneurism*...sssssssssssss
0
Reply
Male 2,552
:O That cloud there, the last frame, that just COULD not have been a coincidence! It is PROOF of... whatever.
OK, so that joke was lame.

But I agree with APJ311, that was brilliant. ^^
0
Reply
Male 26
1: "Mathematics may...totally random number, and any losses related to said chosen number is forgotten anyway."
Bull. If you won the lottery you wouldn`t give one iota about where you got the number.

2. Oscala: You`re a great troll. If you`re not a troll god wants you to enjoy your AIDS because otherwise "he" would have made you only wear one. Wearing two condoms(Wearing multiple condoms significantly increases friction and greatly increases the chance of breakage.)
0
Reply
Male 336
he`s closest to British yes, but I can see the OZ in the snoz.
0
Reply
Male 774
So I was half right when I said that precognition dreams can be chalked up to dreaming about an event likely to happen (washing the dishes).

Oh, also, fav`d.
I love information.
0
Reply
Female 54
Well done IAB. Excellent video choice.
0
Reply
Male 467
Nice video, all hail probability!
0
Reply
Male 656
Informative and interesting.

Altho9ugh that is somewhat hidden by the monotonous tone of this guys voice, followed by the repitition in his lecture.
0
Reply
Male 10,855
@almightybob1
That`s not a very good explanation considering that she`s been spamming for oh... THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS!!!!!!
0
Reply
Female 159
That`s not a British accent. At least not fully. That man has spend some time in Australia/New Zealand
0
Reply
Male 749
This video is brilliant. It`s amazing how few people understand coincidence.
0
Reply
Male 1,351
"too long, somewhat boring plus I prefer to retain a little bit of whimsy in my life without a boring British guy telling me nothing is special."

Boring to you maybe, but the point wasn`t really to knock your socks off. I liked this video.
0
Reply
Female 239
"too long, somewhat boring plus I prefer to retain a little bit of whimsy in my life without a boring British guy telling me nothing is special."

agreed.
0
Reply
Male 1,193
"It would be supernatural if coincidences didn`t occur" mindblowing
0
Reply
Male 4,290
[quote]How has itkonlyyou67 been able to spam 94 times without getting the ban hammer? D:[/quote]

Because the itk spammers use scripts to post hundreds of times in quick succession. Those 94 spam posts probably all came within the last 15 minutes.
They`re being deleted as we speak.
0
Reply
Female 1,593
How has itkonlyyou67 been able to spam 94 times without getting the ban hammer? D:
0
Reply
Female 798
too long, somewhat boring plus I prefer to retain a little bit of whimsy in my life without a boring British guy telling me nothing is special.
0
Reply
Male 784
Hmmm the last few seconds kinda destroyed the argument...I mean Peace, that`s not very probable.
0
Reply
Male 2,345
Oscola...you are an idiot
0
Reply
Female 525
Oscola: Then why didn`t god help tell her to use a condom when she contracted aids? Why didn`t he intervene in other people? What makes you so special? It could of just been a thought brought on by subliminal thoughts you weren`t aware you were having. Perhaps you noticed in your subconscious she appeared iller than other hookers you`ve been with. There`s many reasons why you would have decided to put on a rubber but that doesn`t necessarily mean a god went and told you to.
Why would god save YOU but let everyone else die from it? Really? Cause you`re just that good of a person?
0
Reply
Male 136
Am I the only one that found it ironic that a guy making a case against the supernatural used two Biblical names for the little Rocky Horror guys?
0
Reply
Male 561
Wow!....... my name is Zebedee Doodah too!
Coincidence?........spooky huh?
0
Reply
Male 349
I once slept with a hooker, and for some strange reason, unlike other times, I wore a condom. A couple months later I went back to the same place and asked around for her. Turns out she died of AIDs. If God wasn`t the one who made me think to put a rubber on then what did. Probability can`t explain it because I never wear a johnny, it must have been supernatural intervention. It freaked me out so much that from now on whenever I visit Soho I`ll put two on.
0
Reply
Male 3,327
Problem with his birthday calcs. The odds of a birthday being on 2/29 are slightly less than 1 in 1461 (one day in four years), not 1 in 366 (one day in one leap year). You`d have to do calculations based on that number. (Slightly less than 1/1461 since a leap year isn`t a leap year if it is divisible by 100, but isn`t divisible by 400. That means 1900 wasn`t a leap year, but 2000 was.)
0
Reply
Male 762
"The supernatural is still there of course, but not everything has to do with it"

Good job placating your ignorance.
0
Reply
Male 594
Ha Ha The moth died.
0
Reply
Male 440
I found it a bit drawn out but otherwise good. Of course I already understood the maths he speaks of so he was preaching to the converted in my case. We did the birthday thing when I was in College. It worked. Out of a class of 32 two of us had the same birthday. Since we were all close in age even the year was the same as it happened.
0
Reply
Male 15,510
Interesting worth watching video. It explain many things some might think are "supernatural" and such, in a easy way. The supernatural is still there of course, but not everything has to do with it
0
Reply
Male 27
He sounds like the guy from tales of mere existence.
0
Reply
Male 1,596
fairly elementary mathmatics shall never prove me wrong!
0
Reply
Female 934
I wish this video would load for me. It is right up my alley.
0
Reply
Male 176
This guy sounds a lot like potholer54. And, this video is just as good.
0
Reply
Male 1,598
pretty cool, but the guy`s voice was dull and monotone
0
Reply
Female 3,574
cool
0
Reply
Male 4,012
Mathematics may eliminate superstition, but it also ignores emotions, something that all humans have. If I chose to buy a lottery ticket using my birthday, winning it would be sweeter and memorable than a totally random number, and any losses related to said chosen number is forgotten anyway.

So if it comes down to faith, superstition, etc, I say go for it. Unless one becomes clouded and deluded to think that the reality speaks otherwise, these associations are a healthy part of being human.
0
Reply
Male 769
That wasn`t Joseph Bloggs, that was Obama.

YAHTZEE!
0
Reply
Female 300
good info...long presentation, and slightly boring at times.
0
Reply
Male 4,290
Gah, I learn this at uni already! IAB is where I come to get away from learning statistics.
0
Reply
Male 5,094
Solid 4.
0
Reply
Male 54
This video; no poo.
0
Reply
Male 4,807
Link: Probability Theory Is Sufficient To Explain All [Rate Link] - Poor understanding of probability lead people to put forward supernatural explanation for overly-common events.
0
Reply